American Politics Today; or, Catching World History on the Turn
My view on the landscape:
Both McCain and Clinton bet the wrong horse; years ago, both thought the only way to be President was to be hawkish on Iraq, and now both are paying the price for their strategic misjudgment. Losing a war is the most significant sin an American president can commit, and the real world consequences of W's folly, for the GOP, the idea of unilateral intervention, the Bush family name, and our national nonsense of being "the world's only superpower" have only begun to be measured.
For this reason, neither John nor Hillary will win their respective nominations. So, barring some awful accident, the campaign will come down to Barack and Rudy. Both are non-traditional candidates, one a drag king, the other a coke fiend; both are free of the taint of responsibility for this godforsaken war; both are media-friendly, and fit the emerging mainstream media narrative of a nation searching for new options. Stakes is high; Rudy is a tinpot dictator waiting for his chance to reign, with no constitutional scruples to speak of and enough oily charm to make the bicoastal elite ready to defend him in the face of intemperate left-wing aggression.
Barry, on the other hand... BO has the sort of biography that makes progressives swoon. He was a community organizer, for christ's sake; what's more, he worked with the Industrial Areas Foundation, linking Catholic parishes with AfAm churches to enable social change. Every person on the left, as they get to know this, will take this fact as a secret handshake, as a moment of dog-whistle politics of the sort that kept W in tune with the evangelicals even as he campaigned as a moderate decent sort of Republican.
Given the Senate situation (21 GOP seats up for election, 12 Dem seats, 11 of which are totally safe), it's likely that the Dems will increase their margins in Congress in 2008. Whether they win the Presidency is another matter entirely.
If enough of the country has gotten over the fear of a black man in executive office, then the USA has a serendipitous opportunity to undo the awful realities of the first years of the 21st century. If Rudy wins.... qui sait? c'est sur que maintenant ce serait le moment d'huir le pays.
Also: HotlineTV is like Apocalypse Now, only it totally doesn't matter and who cares about decadence anyway?
My view on the landscape:
Both McCain and Clinton bet the wrong horse; years ago, both thought the only way to be President was to be hawkish on Iraq, and now both are paying the price for their strategic misjudgment. Losing a war is the most significant sin an American president can commit, and the real world consequences of W's folly, for the GOP, the idea of unilateral intervention, the Bush family name, and our national nonsense of being "the world's only superpower" have only begun to be measured.
For this reason, neither John nor Hillary will win their respective nominations. So, barring some awful accident, the campaign will come down to Barack and Rudy. Both are non-traditional candidates, one a drag king, the other a coke fiend; both are free of the taint of responsibility for this godforsaken war; both are media-friendly, and fit the emerging mainstream media narrative of a nation searching for new options. Stakes is high; Rudy is a tinpot dictator waiting for his chance to reign, with no constitutional scruples to speak of and enough oily charm to make the bicoastal elite ready to defend him in the face of intemperate left-wing aggression.
Barry, on the other hand... BO has the sort of biography that makes progressives swoon. He was a community organizer, for christ's sake; what's more, he worked with the Industrial Areas Foundation, linking Catholic parishes with AfAm churches to enable social change. Every person on the left, as they get to know this, will take this fact as a secret handshake, as a moment of dog-whistle politics of the sort that kept W in tune with the evangelicals even as he campaigned as a moderate decent sort of Republican.
Given the Senate situation (21 GOP seats up for election, 12 Dem seats, 11 of which are totally safe), it's likely that the Dems will increase their margins in Congress in 2008. Whether they win the Presidency is another matter entirely.
If enough of the country has gotten over the fear of a black man in executive office, then the USA has a serendipitous opportunity to undo the awful realities of the first years of the 21st century. If Rudy wins.... qui sait? c'est sur que maintenant ce serait le moment d'huir le pays.
Also: HotlineTV is like Apocalypse Now, only it totally doesn't matter and who cares about decadence anyway?
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